Another BoC Rate Hold Appears Likely

Another BoC Rate Hold Appears Likely
News| July 28, 2025| Monte Stewart
Canada + Apartment Buildings

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its key overnight lending rate at 2.75% again this week.

The BoC will announce its decision as a deadline for a new Canada-U.S. trade deal looms.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday that negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration have entered “an intense phase” after the American and U.K. governments struck an agreement in recent days.

“[Canadians] don’t deserve the uncertainty that’s been thrust upon them… They want the right kind of resolution,” Carney told reporters during a news conference in Prince County, P.E.I. “They want a deal that makes sense for Canada.”

If it comes to fruition, the BoC hold will be the bank’s third straight.

The decision will have wideranging implications for Canada’s commercial real estate market, which is displaying more caution amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

The U.S. Federal reserve is expected to maintain a similar stance and keep its prime rate at 4.25%. Both central banks will issue announce their latest rate decisions on Wednesday, just two days before Friday’s deadline for the Canada-U.S. trade deal.

Analysts are predicting that the BoC will toe the line again due to Canada-U.S. trade tensions and the economic uncertainty, and the market has already priced in a hold, according to reports. Meanwhile, a recent Reuters poll shows that the country’s economists also anticipate a hold. But those polled by Reuters expect the BoC to introduce at least two more cuts this year.

Contrary to its regular practice, the BoC did not issue an economic forecast with its last interest-rate decision in May, due to the difficulty of predicting trends and the uncertainty surrounding the volatility of U.S. tariffs and their potential impact on Canada-U.S. trade. That has left analysts and economists wondering whether the BoC will resume its forecasts.

“One uncertainty is whether they boycott the forecasting game again and leave us a little bit in the dark,” Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Bank of Nova Scotia, told The Globe and Mail in an interview. “And honestly, I wouldn’t blame them. I don’t think they have any further clarity on trade policy and fiscal plans now than they did in April.”

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that economic shocks, rather than just trends, could affect the bank’s future rate decisions.

Reports indicate that the trade-deal deadline will not be met as both countries dig in their heels on tariff policy and other matters.

Trump told reporters that Canada was not a priority for his administration before the deadline.

Pictured: Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney

Photo: Shutterstock

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