Severe Southern Ontario Winter Storm Hampers Canadian Home Sales

Severe Southern Ontario Winter Storm Hampers Canadian Home Sales
News| February 19, 2026| Monte Stewart
Canada + Apartment Buildings

A harsh winter storm in Southern Ontario pushed Canadian home sales sharply downward in January, with activity down significantly compared with a year earlier.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported that actual home sales in January 2026 were 16.2% below the same month in 2025. On a month-over-month basis, sales fell 5.8% from December.

“The monthly decline in national home sales was driven primarily by less activity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario, suggesting that the story was probably more about a historic winter storm than a downshift in demand,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “Notwithstanding the chilly start to the year, we continue to expect 2026 will ultimately be defined by pent-up demand from first-time buyers finally seeing a chance to enter the market.”

The slowdown came despite a surge in new listings. The number of newly listed properties jumped 7.3% month-over-month in January, with about two-thirds of local markets posting gains. However, Central and Southwestern Ontario recorded less activity, reinforcing the view that severe weather suppressed both demand and supply in those regions.

“We always say all real estate is local, and on occasion, including this January, that can mean the impact of local weather on the market,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA’s chair. “In a repeat of 2025, new listings are showing up early to start the year, so sellers are eager to getting going, but we may have to wait a bit longer to see how buyers react.”

With new supply rising and sales declining, the national sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 45% in January, down from 51.3% at the end of 2025. The long-term average for the measure is 54.8%.

The National Composite MLS Home Price Index fell 4.9% year-over-year and was down 0.9% month-over-month. The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $652,941 in January 2026, a 2.6% decline from a year earlier.

At the end of January, 140,680 properties were listed for sale across Canadian MLS systems, up 4.5% year-over-year but 11.4% below the long-term average for that time of year. There were 4.9 months of inventory nationally, up from 4.6 months at the end of December and close to the long-term average of five months.

Pictured: Condominium for sale in Vancouver.

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