Brighter Days Ahead for Canadian CRE Market

News| December 10, 2025| Monte Stewart

Most of Avison Young’s Canadian commercial real estate experts are feeling more confident about the market as 2026 approaches.

The 2026 Canadian outlook survey of Avison Young experts shows that brighter days are ahead for Canada’s CRE market, according to the global CRE advisory firm.

Among experts surveyed, 97% expressed confidence that activity would increase (64%) or remain stable (33%). That marks a notable change from mid-year 2025, when respondents saw more stability (48%) than increased activity (45%). The 19% surge in expected activity signals “resounding positivity,” said the company.

“Optimism is in the air, with a focus on recovery and growth among all sectors across the Canadian commercial landscape heading into 2026,” said Mark Fieder, an Avison Young principal who heads the firm’s Canadian business.

Avison Young experts in all Canadian markets except Vancouver anticipate that much more transaction activity will occur in 2026. The company’s Vancouver-based brokers and executives anticpate stable activity compared to 2025.

But Fieder warned of potential market disruption amid prevailing Canada-U.S. trade uncertainty. The countries have been attempting to negotiate a new trade deal with few clear signs of progress as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to display strong opposition to free trade.

“Although confidence is the overarching sentiment for the year ahead, we are closely monitoring tariff measures and resulting slowdowns largely driven by declining exports in sectors closely tied to U.S. supply chains, such as automotive and machinery,” said Fieder.

Commercial real estate has demonstrated that it can thrive as an investment vehicle, despite levels of uncertainty and mixed sentiments this year, said the company. Avison Young noted that year-to-date investment volumes remain consistent with 2024, and the third quarter was the strongest sales period since 2022.

Momentum that began in the second half of 2025 will continue, and the market will continue to improve in 2026, “especially as further interest-rate cuts could positively stimulate more investor appetite,” the company predicts.

Industrial investors are expected to maintain their optimism, but Avison Young remains “mindful” of the potential effects of tariffs on the sector, which has outperformed its counterparts in recent year.

Retail is expected to experience upswings in markets impacted by the growing return-to-office movement as boosts downtown vibrancy and supports ground-level outlets.

But multi-family investors are expected to display more cautious optimism than those in other sectors due to a persistent wide bid-ask gap between buyers and sellers.

“Polling our Avison Young experts gives us a meaningful measure of insights across sectors and service lines, strengthening our ability to strategically guide clients through critical business and real estate decisions,” said Marie-France Benoit an Avison Young principal who heads the firm’s Canadian market-intelligence business. “Given our professionals are actively engaged in transactions set to close throughout 2026, their perspectives yield a unique vantage point to identify early signals of trends taking shape.”

Avison Young has also release and the overall outlooks market for Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. The company also conducted a 2026 U.S. Outlook that points to growing confidence south of the border.